(1) Policy level: The local government provides greater tax incentives for the non-recurring gains and losses arising from the appreciation of Auman's medium-to-heavy-duty truck business assets. The 2008 annual performance is more than expected; the development of new energy vehicles in the mid-to-long term has increased and the scope of subsidies has increased. From pilot cities to first-tier and second-tier cities, and even nationwide; the probability of subsidy policies for cars to the countryside continues to increase in 2010; (2) Integration expectation: The company, as a leading enterprise in commercial vehicles, will use state policies to support implementation during industry adjustment. There is a high probability of external M&A expansion; the overall listing platform of BAIC Group is expected;
Earnings Forecast and Investment Proposal: It is expected that the 09-10 EPS of the company will be 0.67 yuan and 1.07 yuan respectively; the dynamic PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 26.6 times and 17.9 times respectively, and the valuation level is slightly higher than the average level of the entire vehicle industry. Excluding the non-recurring new gains and losses of Auman’s asset appraisal value, it was 0.25 yuan and 0.36 yuan, corresponding PE was 39.1 times and 27.1 times, and the valuation level was higher than the industry average. However, considering the multiple stock price catalysts in the medium and long term, and optimistic about the company's strategic transformation, we give the company an "overweight" investment rating with a target price of 11 yuan for 6 months.
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