Is it arrogant to use OTR?

The ban on the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles has started to "pop" after the G20 summit this year. Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, France and Germany all have declarations. In early September of this year, Xin Guobin, Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said in a speech on the development of China's auto industry in 2017: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will initiate relevant studies and will work out with relevant departments the timetable for China. Obviously, the rapid development of new energy vehicles exceeds everyone's expectations, but the overall ban on gasoline and diesel vehicles has been too big. Is it really true, or is it all right?

Gas and diesel cars will be "dead"? Many people say NO

At the opening ceremony of the Frankfurt car this year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that the German automobile industry must regain trust as soon as possible. Two years ago, the fraud of Volkswagen's exhaust data was exposed in the United States, involving millions of cars, causing adverse effects. However, Merkel believes that it should not exclude the technology of gasoline and diesel vehicles, but also invest in the development of new drive technologies. Therefore, the German automobile's gasoline and diesel technology gradually approaching the end of the road is not broken. At the Frankfurt Motor Show, Chairman of the board of directors of Daimler AG and Cai Che, global president of the Mercedes-Benz Group, also stated that “a complete ban on one drive is likely to be an Oolong.”

For the ban on gasoline and diesel cars, the European Automobile Parts Suppliers Federation has a clear-cut opposition: European countries and the automotive industry can not bet on all electric cars, but should give themselves more choices. The federation believes that in terms of battery technology, there is a big gap between European and Asian countries. The rapid development of electric vehicles in Europe will allow China, Japan, and South Korea to take the initiative and increase the unemployment rate. The data shows that as a pillar industry in many European countries, the automotive industry provides 12.6 million jobs in Europe.

Radicals will certainly incur opposition. At the Second China Automobile Brand Development Forum held on September 21st, Fu Yuwu, member of the China Association of Automobile Engineering, expressed his opinion on the issue of the domestic ban on fuel vehicles: “The ban on fuel vehicles is a big issue, regardless of The government or the industry must be responsible for history. China must be cautious in prohibiting the sale of fuel vehicles. We must follow the laws of science and follow the laws of the market. Do not follow blindly. This is my basic attitude.” The attitude of enterprises is the same. Not so clear. At this year’s Michelin Summit, Yu Jun, general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group, stated clearly that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the future. “Is the electric drive a BEV (battery electric car) or an FCV (hydrogen fuel cell electric car)? Or Both coexist, it is difficult to give an answer now." Yu Jun told reporters that the best approach should not be to limit a certain path, but should encourage companies to try and explore different routes. A combination of multiple routes may be the best option at the moment. Jun Yu believes that by 2020, 80% of Chuan-Kong vehicles will still be traditional cars, and the leading position of traditional cars will be hard to shake.

Gasoline engine "strives for survival"

According to industry sources, pure electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence will be the main theme in the future. At present, electrification may even become the only solution. However, how long can fossil fuels last, and even if there is still much potential for traditional internal combustion engines, the existing understanding is constantly being broken and this will change.

The Guangzhou Daily reporter learned that the gasoline engine is still struggling for development and has achieved technological breakthroughs. In terms of car prices, Mazda has planned to launch a new generation of Chuang Chi blue sky technology engine. Compared to the previous generation of Chuang Chi blue-sky engines, the second-generation engines did not adopt the spark ignition ignition method of traditional internal combustion engines. Instead, they adopted the HCCI homogeneous compression ignition combustion technology. This technology will no longer require spark plugs and is expected to be The fuel consumption of the entire new generation of Mazda 3 Angkor Sierra is reduced to 3.3L/100km.

Toyota's approach is more direct and will introduce a number of hybrid models in Europe. It is expected that by 2020, hybrid models will account for about half of its total sales in Europe. BorgWarner, a parts solutions specialist, is also using turbocharging technology and using different technology solutions to introduce VTG (variable profile gasoline engine turbocharger) and ebooster (electronic booster) turbocharging technology. These two technologies can to some extent "eliminate" the common problem of turbocharged engines - turbo lag and further reduce fuel consumption.

The key to the question: How long can oil be used?

The precondition for the development of electrification is based on the assumption that fossil fuels are depleted. However, petrochemical resources are not strained, and the transition from traditional power to full-scale electric power will take a long time. According to the BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook (2017), in 2016, the global proven oil reserves increased by 15 billion barrels (0.9%) to 1.707 trillion barrels. According to the 2016 production level, this reserve can meet the world's needs. About 50 years of use. However, with the popularization of energy-saving and environmental protection technologies for traditional internal combustion engines, the useful life will be extended to around 60 years.

So, oil is only enough for mining for 50 years? Similar warnings have been heard throughout the world more than a decade ago. However, with the increase in proven oil reserves, oil has only been available for 50 years. If U.S. shale oil and China's flammable ice were to be commercialized, traditional cars could continue to "live" for a long time. In spite of this, the substitution of electricity for oil is a general trend. As the cost of batteries decreases and performance increases, the most optimistic prediction is that starting next year, consumers will have an electric vehicle that will cost almost as much as gasoline and diesel without policy subsidies.

To regain its reputation, Volkswagen has released a 70 billion-euro EV strategy, but VW CEO Mullen emphasized that "traditional cars and alternative energy vehicles are not the so-called enemies." To a certain extent, the time nodes set by some European countries can only represent "individuals" rather than the deadline for the life of gasoline and diesel vehicles. "Internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles (miscellaneous vehicles, electric vehicles, etc.) will surely coexist for a long period of time," said Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Automotive Industry Association.