Nowadays, the auto industry is not desperate in the increasingly cold winter. The entire industry is expecting the government to launch the “Invigoration Automobile Industry Planning†(hereinafter referred to as “planningâ€) before the Spring Festival to promote frozen automobile companies. Warm up early.
When the plan was put forward, it attracted much attention. While the plan was not yet implemented, major institutions and industry people had assessed the beautiful prospects they had brought. However, without actual data support, such comments are now It can only be a picture of hunger.
On January 6th, the Securities Daily reporter connected the telephone of Dong Guan Mi Jin of China National Heavy Duty Truck. His attitude is somewhat uncertain: “The government’s policy of launching a revitalizing automobile industry is certainly a good thing, but the current policy has not yet been introduced, so it’s not Good comments.†Under repeated questioning by reporters, Tong Jingen stated: “Policy is a means of macro-control, but it will not affect the individual companies.â€
Planning biased towards the car
The earliest prototype of "rejuvenated automobile industry planning" was put forward at the beginning of December 2008. From December 8 to December 10, at the “Central Economic Work Conference†for deploying the economic development strategy in 2009, the highest decision-making level clearly stated that it is necessary to “vigorously promote the consumption of farmers, stabilize the development of housing consumption and automobile consumption, and focus on the development of service consumption. And tourism consumption."
Afterwards, on December 12th, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong stated that it is formulating a plan to rescue the automobile industry, including the reduction of taxes on purchase tax for vehicles, financial and credit policies, recycling of used cars, and increasing support for auto consumption. Wait. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council, while visiting the Chongqing No. 1 Automobile Factory on December 21, said that the automobile industry has a long industrial chain and is an important industry that should be supported vigorously. Until New Year's Day, Premier Wen Jiabao once again revealed that the automobile industry revitalization plan has been formulated and completed.
On January 4, some media reported that the specific contents of the revitalization plan include encouraging consumers to purchase small-displacement vehicles, encouraging auto companies to develop their own brands, reducing auto purchase tax, fuel tax reform, supporting new energy vehicles, and The compulsory scrapped vehicles are given subsidies.
In similar rumours, the proposal to waive the purchase tax on small-displacement passenger vehicles was respected by most of the industry. They believe that the introduction of the automobile revitalization plan will allow small-displacement vehicles to become the biggest beneficiaries.
According to current industry rumored plans to revitalize the automobile industry, mainly for cars, especially small-displacement cars, it is still not clear whether China National Heavy Duty Truck, a heavy truck-based company, will profit from it.
When the reporter was interviewing CNOOC Dong Mi, Tong Jingen, he said that he would not comment on the contents of the plan. The reporter once faxed the above plan to him, but he has never heard a reply.
Tong Jingen said that at present, the rumors of planning are still not credible, and only after the plans are introduced can the company know what impact it will have on the company. However, he still expressed that planning is the government's macro-control and it will not play a significant role for listed companies.
EGR technology preempts but the advantage is difficult to guarantee
Sinotruk is one of the leading five heavy truck manufacturers in China with a market share of about 16%. At present, the annual vehicle production capacity of China National Heavy Duty Truck is about 100,000, and the annual capacity of the bridge box company's complete vehicle supporting bridge is 100,000.
After the implementation of State III emission standards in the second half of 2008, China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. obtained a certain cost advantage with its own research and development of low-priced EGR engines. From the perspective of sales in the second half of the year, the EGR ratio is as high as 80%, which means that almost all of the vehicles sold by CNHTC in China are realized through EGR technology.
According to China National Heavy Duty Truck Forecast, in 2008, production and sales of heavy trucks will exceed 112,000 units and 128,000 engines will be produced. The annual sales revenue will exceed 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%.
Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Trucks Hong Kong Co., Ltd. Ma Chunji decided, he said, the market situation in 2009 is not optimistic. However, on the whole, China’s economy will continue to maintain a steady and relatively rapid development momentum next year. In the face of the current situation, China National Heavy Duty Truck has firm three confidence: firm confidence in the market and demand; firm confidence in the country's macro-control; firm confidence in the development of the heavy truck industry.
There is no doubt that the slogan of China National Heavy Duty Truck is loud in the face of adversity, but whether it can be achieved depends on the company's future achievements.
According to analyst Chen Liang of Huatai Securities, EGR technology does not have a high threshold for entry. With the follow-up of EGR by other manufacturers, and the price cuts of high-voltage common rails on another technology route, this advantage of Sinotruk will Will gradually disappear.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation has formulated its goal for 2009: to ensure that production and sales have increased compared to 2008, and strives to produce and sell 125,000 heavy-duty vehicles throughout the year, of which 20,000 are guaranteed to be exported and 25,000 vehicles are striven for. Strive to increase market share by 3-5 percent.
However, Chen Liang's analysis is not so optimistic. Heavy trucks can be classified as means of production, and the decline in sales during the economic downturn is very large. It is estimated that the sales volume of the heavy-duty truck industry will drop by about 15% in 2008, and the market share of China National Heavy Duty Truck is difficult to increase. Therefore, Sinotruk's performance in 2009 will show a substantial decline.
Although Chen Liang's prediction is not optimistic, it does not mean that Sinotruk has no chance to stand up.
The analysis report of Qilu Securities stated that about 30% of the heavy truck trucks in China are used as engineering vehicles, and will benefit directly from the government’s background of investing in expanding domestic demand to stimulate economic growth.
The report stated that due to the stimulus of domestic demand policies, the sales growth of heavy-duty truck industry in 2009 will increase by 3% over our previous forecast. We expect that sales of domestic heavy trucks will resume its upward trend in the second half of 2009. It is estimated that sales of heavy trucks will decrease by 5%.
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