The impact of power shortage is far greater than the power surplus

Lin Boqiang, economist and director of the Asian Development Bank, said: "Electricity is a sensitive commodity because it affects social stability and the investment climate, and because the negative impact of the power shortage on the economy is far greater than the impact of excess power, it is sufficient Power supply capacity to meet the growing demand for electricity is very important. "Mr. Lin called electricity as a sensitive commodity, saying that it will affect the social stability and investment environment, in particular, proposed that the negative impact of the power shortage on the economy far greater than the power surplus The impact of the power characteristics can be said to raise a new level.

Throughout the world, all the discussion on the characteristics of electricity, all that the need to ensure adequate supply of electricity, that is, to ensure that no power shortage. It seems very difficult to ensure that there will be no shortage of electricity and no surplus so that the supply and demand of electricity will be just right every year. China has experienced power shortage and serious power shortage for 28 years from 1970 to 1997. Power supply and demand have been eased for four years from 1998 to 2001, and another three years since 2002 when power was lacking. In the 35 years since 1970, there were 31 years of power shortage in our country. It can be seen that it is more difficult to ensure sufficient power supply in China.

For how to maintain a sufficient supply of China's power, Mr. Lin Boqiang out of three prescriptions: First, based on long-term demand rather than short-term fluctuations to determine the construction of power station projects; second is the use of traditional "energy priority" (ie "Electricity first Strategy of growth "); thirdly, establish an effective power shortage early warning system (providing early warning one to two years earlier). However, since the market mechanism can not provide an accurate signal about the investment in power projects, that is, both the long-term and the short-term electricity demand, it is difficult to accurately predict the early warning and the first and third items will hardly work. Since the cost of shortage is much higher than excess, the growth strategy of "electricity first" still applies. Its requirement to maintain a certain excess capacity to cope with the contingency of power supply is necessary to support China's rapid and steady economic growth.

There are four reasons for China's power shortage in recent years: First, the economic growth is accelerating, especially the heavy chemical industries that consume large amounts of energy and electricity are experiencing rapid growth; second, the summer is extremely hot with 30% to 40% of the maximum load of air- ; Third, the hydropower station can not send electricity to the dry water; Fourth, the lack of coal supply, even with sufficient power generation capacity, it can not fully generate electricity. In view of this situation, I think the only way is to strengthen energy construction, that is, to strengthen the coal, coal transport capacity, water and electricity, nuclear power construction, so that energy priorities, electricity first, coal, electricity can do a greater reserve capacity, Rather than overcapacity, not to make it a shortage; coal, transportation capacity and power should bear the excess losses to ensure the stability of the entire society and a good investment environment.


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