Wind power development is booming today. It is expected that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will increase by 20% by 2020. The European Wind Energy Association and Greenpeace further confirmed that wind power installed capacity will reach 1.26 billion kilowatts and wind power will reach 3.1 trillion kilowatt hours, accounting for 12% of total power generation in 2020.
This amazing figure not only attracts the attention of foreign equipment manufacturers, but also spurs the enthusiasm of Chinese equipment manufacturers to invest. However, experts predict that the development of wind power, especially in the manufacturing industry, is not smooth, and wind turbine manufacturers still need to avoid technical risks.
Keep up with new energy
Clean and renewable new energy sources have received widespread attention in recent years, and among various new energy sources, wind power generation technology is relatively mature, and the most large-scale commercial development conditions and relatively low cost, so the degree of attention is increasing. Warm up.
According to the data, the value of new wind power equipment in the world reached US$23 billion in 2006, which has formed a large industry. The increase in the scale of the industry and the rapid development have attracted more enterprises to invest in the wind power equipment manufacturing industry.
It is predicted that by 2010 and 2020, the global wind power equipment market capacity will reach 32 billion US dollars and 120 billion US dollars respectively.
In the past ten years, China's large-scale wind turbine manufacturing industry has basically started from zero. At present, it has mastered the design and manufacturing technology of 750 kW units and parts, and has realized mass production. At present, domestic MW-class variable-speed constant-frequency units are being developed and partially The unit was put into operation, and the megawatt blades, gearbox and generator were also completed and put into small batch production.
Since 2004, many powerful enterprises have been involved in the field of wind power equipment manufacturing, and it is expected to greatly promote the localized production supply capacity and localization level of MW-class advanced units in the near future. However, in general, the overall design of the whole machine and the design and manufacture of key components are still the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of China's wind turbine manufacturing industry.
At present, the international mainstream onshore wind turbine capacity has reached 3MW, and offshore wind farms have been in operation since 2002. Compared with the international level, China's wind turbine technology still has a large gap. The mainstream onshore wind turbines currently being assembled have a capacity of 1.5MW. The first offshore wind farm has just completed the tender.
The road to localization is not flat
As of the end of 2006, in China's existing installed capacity, the majority of turbines below the MW level accounted for the vast majority, the most representative of which is Jinfeng Technology's 600kW and 750kW equipment. The company originally introduced the technology of Jacobs in Germany and has the capacity of 600kW and 750kW fans. With the mastery of this technology, it has risen rapidly after the hard start-up phase. However, many companies do not have access to core technologies.
In fact, the road to localization of wind power equipment in China is not smooth. Earlier, the two joint ventures supported by the former State Planning Commission to implement the “Winning Plan†did not achieve the intended purpose; the “Megawatt Wind Turbine Development†project supported by the National Science and Technology Commission 863 Project, 3 of the 5 undertaking enterprises The strongest ones have withdrawn. Therefore, in general, due to the lack of talents in the wind power equipment industry, China's wind power industry lacks sufficient independent research and development capabilities.
After years of development, China's domestic wind power equipment technology has been continuously improved. At present, many companies have mastered the design and manufacturing technology of units below 750 kW and achieved mass production. With a large number of enterprises involved in the field of wind turbine manufacturing, foreign wind turbine manufacturers have entered the domestic factory, and the development and production of MW-class wind turbines are also accelerating. Still need to circumvent technical risks
At present, a number of enterprises have entered the market competition by directly introducing wind turbine technology above MW level and having certain technical conditions. However, many traditional equipment manufacturers have introduced foreign MW-class wind turbine technology, but they have entered the wind turbine manufacturing market without the basic manufacturing base.
The results of the survey indicate that due to the lack of technology and experience, the trial operation of these newly entered equipment manufacturers is not very smooth, and its stability remains to be seen. In addition, the technical strength and ability to obtain orders smoothly from the upstream parts manufacturing to the whole machine manufacturing is also difficult to predict.
In 2006, China's fourth phase of wind power concession project requires that the winning bidder must include a wind power equipment manufacturer, and the localization rate must reach 70%. Affected by this policy, international wind power industry giants have set up assembly plants, parts factories or R&D centers in China.
With the absorption of foreign technology by domestic manufacturers in the future, as well as the increase in wind turbine manufacturing experience, the implementation of relevant policies, and the formulation of industry standards, it can be expected that the wind power industry environment in China will be greatly improved, and the technology research and development strength will be improved. Reduce the gap with international advanced technology.
It is worth noting that although domestic manufacturers face huge potential production capacity, they also face great technical risks. Wind turbine equipment looks simple, the actual technology is complex, and the quality requirements are high.
The main difficulty is that the unit should be reliable for 20 years in the field. It must withstand all kinds of extreme weather and very complicated wind load, without the accumulation of rich practical experience, the product quality is difficult to guarantee.
According to the data, well-known companies such as Boeing Company, Westinghouse Company, China's Helicopter Research Institute and Rocket Research Institute have encountered great difficulties in the development of wind turbines, which is an inadequate estimation of the technical difficulty of wind power.
The introduction of wind power technology is also facing the risk of greater technological transformation. The main risks come from the localized manufacturing level of key components such as gear boxes and fans, as well as the design maturity level of imported models. In addition, due to the serious shortage of relevant technical personnel, the problem of after-sales maintenance after the introduction of technology to rapidly form production capacity has become increasingly prominent, and the situation is quite severe.
Industry insiders will not forget that foreign Micon companies have had thousands of gearboxes around the world forced to replace due to quality problems, but the company was bankrupt due to shortage of personnel. There are also cases in China that have imported more than 50 units of Nedwind due to technical problems and have not been able to generate electricity since installation in Daban City, Xinjiang.
The wind power manufacturing industry is emerging, and its purpose is to achieve a lucrative economic return in the field. However, the reality of the situation draws the attention of equipment manufacturers that it is absolutely impossible to follow up in this field and to act rationally. The painful lessons of the company's bankruptcy due to poor quality of technology may be a clearing factor for companies to make decisions.
This amazing figure not only attracts the attention of foreign equipment manufacturers, but also spurs the enthusiasm of Chinese equipment manufacturers to invest. However, experts predict that the development of wind power, especially in the manufacturing industry, is not smooth, and wind turbine manufacturers still need to avoid technical risks.
Keep up with new energy
Clean and renewable new energy sources have received widespread attention in recent years, and among various new energy sources, wind power generation technology is relatively mature, and the most large-scale commercial development conditions and relatively low cost, so the degree of attention is increasing. Warm up.
According to the data, the value of new wind power equipment in the world reached US$23 billion in 2006, which has formed a large industry. The increase in the scale of the industry and the rapid development have attracted more enterprises to invest in the wind power equipment manufacturing industry.
It is predicted that by 2010 and 2020, the global wind power equipment market capacity will reach 32 billion US dollars and 120 billion US dollars respectively.
In the past ten years, China's large-scale wind turbine manufacturing industry has basically started from zero. At present, it has mastered the design and manufacturing technology of 750 kW units and parts, and has realized mass production. At present, domestic MW-class variable-speed constant-frequency units are being developed and partially The unit was put into operation, and the megawatt blades, gearbox and generator were also completed and put into small batch production.
Since 2004, many powerful enterprises have been involved in the field of wind power equipment manufacturing, and it is expected to greatly promote the localized production supply capacity and localization level of MW-class advanced units in the near future. However, in general, the overall design of the whole machine and the design and manufacture of key components are still the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of China's wind turbine manufacturing industry.
At present, the international mainstream onshore wind turbine capacity has reached 3MW, and offshore wind farms have been in operation since 2002. Compared with the international level, China's wind turbine technology still has a large gap. The mainstream onshore wind turbines currently being assembled have a capacity of 1.5MW. The first offshore wind farm has just completed the tender.
The road to localization is not flat
As of the end of 2006, in China's existing installed capacity, the majority of turbines below the MW level accounted for the vast majority, the most representative of which is Jinfeng Technology's 600kW and 750kW equipment. The company originally introduced the technology of Jacobs in Germany and has the capacity of 600kW and 750kW fans. With the mastery of this technology, it has risen rapidly after the hard start-up phase. However, many companies do not have access to core technologies.
In fact, the road to localization of wind power equipment in China is not smooth. Earlier, the two joint ventures supported by the former State Planning Commission to implement the “Winning Plan†did not achieve the intended purpose; the “Megawatt Wind Turbine Development†project supported by the National Science and Technology Commission 863 Project, 3 of the 5 undertaking enterprises The strongest ones have withdrawn. Therefore, in general, due to the lack of talents in the wind power equipment industry, China's wind power industry lacks sufficient independent research and development capabilities.
After years of development, China's domestic wind power equipment technology has been continuously improved. At present, many companies have mastered the design and manufacturing technology of units below 750 kW and achieved mass production. With a large number of enterprises involved in the field of wind turbine manufacturing, foreign wind turbine manufacturers have entered the domestic factory, and the development and production of MW-class wind turbines are also accelerating. Still need to circumvent technical risks
At present, a number of enterprises have entered the market competition by directly introducing wind turbine technology above MW level and having certain technical conditions. However, many traditional equipment manufacturers have introduced foreign MW-class wind turbine technology, but they have entered the wind turbine manufacturing market without the basic manufacturing base.
The results of the survey indicate that due to the lack of technology and experience, the trial operation of these newly entered equipment manufacturers is not very smooth, and its stability remains to be seen. In addition, the technical strength and ability to obtain orders smoothly from the upstream parts manufacturing to the whole machine manufacturing is also difficult to predict.
In 2006, China's fourth phase of wind power concession project requires that the winning bidder must include a wind power equipment manufacturer, and the localization rate must reach 70%. Affected by this policy, international wind power industry giants have set up assembly plants, parts factories or R&D centers in China.
With the absorption of foreign technology by domestic manufacturers in the future, as well as the increase in wind turbine manufacturing experience, the implementation of relevant policies, and the formulation of industry standards, it can be expected that the wind power industry environment in China will be greatly improved, and the technology research and development strength will be improved. Reduce the gap with international advanced technology.
It is worth noting that although domestic manufacturers face huge potential production capacity, they also face great technical risks. Wind turbine equipment looks simple, the actual technology is complex, and the quality requirements are high.
The main difficulty is that the unit should be reliable for 20 years in the field. It must withstand all kinds of extreme weather and very complicated wind load, without the accumulation of rich practical experience, the product quality is difficult to guarantee.
According to the data, well-known companies such as Boeing Company, Westinghouse Company, China's Helicopter Research Institute and Rocket Research Institute have encountered great difficulties in the development of wind turbines, which is an inadequate estimation of the technical difficulty of wind power.
The introduction of wind power technology is also facing the risk of greater technological transformation. The main risks come from the localized manufacturing level of key components such as gear boxes and fans, as well as the design maturity level of imported models. In addition, due to the serious shortage of relevant technical personnel, the problem of after-sales maintenance after the introduction of technology to rapidly form production capacity has become increasingly prominent, and the situation is quite severe.
Industry insiders will not forget that foreign Micon companies have had thousands of gearboxes around the world forced to replace due to quality problems, but the company was bankrupt due to shortage of personnel. There are also cases in China that have imported more than 50 units of Nedwind due to technical problems and have not been able to generate electricity since installation in Daban City, Xinjiang.
The wind power manufacturing industry is emerging, and its purpose is to achieve a lucrative economic return in the field. However, the reality of the situation draws the attention of equipment manufacturers that it is absolutely impossible to follow up in this field and to act rationally. The painful lessons of the company's bankruptcy due to poor quality of technology may be a clearing factor for companies to make decisions.
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